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BAL 8 / CIN 5
BALBaltimore Orioles38%
CINCincinnati Reds62%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
BALAway starterBrandon YoungConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline62%Model 20260629_auto
CINHome starterHunter GreeneConfirmed
BAL38%ML +108
Base model probability62%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
CIN62%ML -126

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap8.3 pts

Hunter Greene's stats are entirely missing (fallback), making CIN side unreliable. Model has CIN at 62% vs market's 53%—a 9-point gap flags market_disagreement_large. Without Greene's actual performance data, I cannot validate model's strong home preference. Brandon Young's 3.11 ERA in 72 IP is legitimate, but one real pitcher doesn't overcome structural uncertainty on the other side.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total8.9
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brandon YoungBAL starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -132 draftkings / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%under
O 6.522%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Hunter GreeneCIN starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -137 betrivers / U +122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.555%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+108 / -126BAL / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -122 / U +100
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total