sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

MIL 2 / CIN 0
MILMilwaukee Brewers58%
CINCincinnati Reds42%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterBrandon SproatConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
CINHome starterNick LodoloConfirmed
MIL58%ML -108
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
CIN42%ML -110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap8.5 pts

Model has MIL at 58.3%, market is dead even at 50-50. The 8.3pp disagreement flags structural risk. Both pitchers are struggling (Lodolo 6.12 ERA, Sproat 5.94 ERA) but MIL's offense is vastly superior (.972 OPS vs .629). CIN averaging 2.5 RPG is historically weak. Model total of 8.0 is 1.5 under market 9.5—lean under given pitcher performance may regress positively.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.4
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brandon SproatMIL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 10 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -118 betrivers / U +100 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.55%over
O 9.53%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Nick LodoloCIN starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -156 betonlineag / U +136 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.540%over
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-108 / -110MIL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-165)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total