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MIL 2 / CIN 1
MILMilwaukee Brewers58%
CINCincinnati Reds42%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MILAway starterBrandon WoodruffConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
CINHome starterBrady SingerConfirmed
MIL58%ML -152
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
CIN42%ML +129

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.3 pts

MIL away pitcher is fallback (TBD), making total unreliable despite model's 7.95 vs market 9.5. Singer's 5.32 ERA in 66 IP is genuine weakness. MIL's .972 OPS and 45-30 record support away side at -145, but pitcher uncertainty and model's 1.5-run total gap warrant caution. Lean MIL on offense, under on structural doubt.

pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Brandon WoodruffMIL starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +125 betrivers / U -150 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.524%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.577%over
O 3.559%over
O 4.540%over
O 5.524%over
O 6.513%over
O 7.57%over
O 8.53%over
O 9.51%over
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +105 betonlineag / U -118 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%over
O 5.530%over
O 6.517%over
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-152 / +129MIL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -112
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total