MLB / mlb / live
KCR 5 / CIN 2KCRKansas City Royals43%
CINCincinnati Reds57%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterStephen Kolek
Model pickCIN moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterChase Burns
KCR43%ML +135
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability59%Selected moneyline pick
CIN57%ML -161
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.0 pts
Both pitchers missing all stats (ERA, IP, K/9, WHIP null despite 10 starts each). Model is constructing signal from ghost data. CIN 31-29 with 4.1 RPG vs KCR 23-38 with 3.9 RPG suggests lean home, but without pitcher context cannot assess 9.16 total vs market 8.0. Take the over lean on model's 1.16-run gap given GABP neutral park, but pass the side.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+135 / -161KCR / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total