MLB / mlb / live
KCR 5 / CIN 2KCRKansas City Royals43%
CINCincinnati Reds57%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterStephen Kolek
Model pickCIN moneyline57%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterChase Burns
KCR43%ML +135
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
CIN57%ML -161
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.0 pts
Both pitchers missing all stats (ERA, IP, K/9, WHIP null despite 10 starts each). Model is constructing signal from ghost data. CIN 31-29 with 4.1 RPG vs KCR 23-38 with 3.9 RPG suggests lean home, but without pitcher context cannot assess 9.16 total vs market 8.0. Take the over lean on model's 1.16-run gap given GABP neutral park, but pass the side.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+135 / -161KCR / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total