MLB / mlb / live
KCR 9 / CIN 2KCRKansas City Royals46%
CINCincinnati Reds54%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedKCRAway starterLuinder Avila
Model pickCIN moneyline54%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterLyon Richardson
KCR46%ML +110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability54%Selected moneyline pick
CIN54%ML -130
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap0.7 pts
Both pitchers lack season-level ERA/K9/WHIP despite being marked 'full' data quality. Burns has 10 starts but no stats; Avila only 1 start. Model top features reference pitcher stats that appear missing. Market implies CIN 66%, model 60%—directional agreement but without pitcher fundamentals I cannot evaluate the 6pp gap or the 8.95 total vs 8.5 market line.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.3
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+110 / -130KCR / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total