MLB / mlb / live
ATL 5 / CIN 2ATLAtlanta Braves42%
CINCincinnati Reds58%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterMartín Pérez
Model pickCIN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterBrady Singer
ATL42%ML -125
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
CIN58%ML +107
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap11.6 pts
Model has CIN at 58% but market implies ATL 57%. ATL is 39-19 with 5.7 RPG vs CIN 29-27 at 4.7 RPG — offense_defense_mismatch flag confirms model picked weaker team. Pérez lacks resolved stats but ATL's superior offense tilts side. Market total 9.5 vs model 8.76 suggests under, though Singer's 6.75 ERA in limited 4.0 IP sample is noisy.
Large model-market gapoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total8.8
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-125 / +107ATL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-140)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -110 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total