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STL 2 / CIN 1
STLSt. Louis Cardinals44%
CINCincinnati Reds56%

at Great American Ball Park

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterQuinn MathewsConfirmed
Model pickCIN moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
CINHome starterKent EmanuelConfirmed
STL44%ML -114
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CIN56%ML -104

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.3 pts

Model backs CIN despite a worse record (59-64 vs 63-61) and a large offensive gap (3.2 RPG/.629 OPS vs 5.2/.812) — the offense_defense_mismatch flag reads as a red flag, and the market's 47.6% on the home side is more credible. Both starters are TBD fallbacks, so this is capped at standard. CIN's weak scoring in a neutral park (PF 0.997) supports under 9.5.

pitcher data fallbackLarge model-market gapoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Brycen MautzSTL starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.7Did not start / void
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%
O 2.570%
O 3.549%
O 4.531%
O 5.517%
O 6.58%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Brady SingerCIN starter / home
Projected K3.8Did not start / void
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%
O 2.572%
O 3.551%
O 4.533%
O 5.519%
O 6.59%
O 7.54%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-114 / -104STL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -102 / U -118
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total