MLB / mlb / live
STL 8 / CIN 1STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%
CINCincinnati Reds58%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSTLAway starterAndre Pallante
Model pickCIN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterChris Paddack
STL42%ML -107
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CIN58%ML -110
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.9 pts
STL's 0.812 OPS vs CIN's 0.629 OPS is a massive gap, yet STL scores only 3.5 RPG. Model leans CIN at 60.2% vs market 53.3%—7pp comparison seems unjustified given offensive profile mismatch. Pitcher stats missing entirely; can't evaluate ace/control narrative. Market total 9.5 vs model 8.95 suggests lean under.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.0
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-107 / -110STL / CIN moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-168)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -112 / U -110
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total