MLB / mlb / live
HOU 0 / CIN 5HOUHouston Astros55%
CINCincinnati Reds45%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterKai-Wei Teng
Model pickHOU moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterAndrew Abbott
HOU55%ML +105
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability47%Selected moneyline pick
CIN45%ML -124
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap8.4 pts
Both pitchers show 0.00 ERA but with season_ip of 6.0 and 2.1 respectively—these are not season totals, likely recent outings only. Data quality marked 'full' but stats don't reflect full season body of work. Market disagreement flag fires but model at 55.2% vs market 53.1% is marginal. Cannot form confident view on either side or total with incomplete pitcher context.
Large model-market gapace matchup
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+105 / -124HOU / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+155)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total