MLB / mlb / live
HOU 10 / CIN 0HOUHouston Astros42%
CINCincinnati Reds58%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterMike Burrows
Model pickCIN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterNick Lodolo
HOU42%ML +118
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CIN58%ML -139
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#8
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.2 pts
Model has CIN 58.1%, market implies 55.6% — close alignment. HOU offense (.695 OPS, 4.1 RPG) superior to CIN (.629 OPS, 3.8 RPG) but Burrows' 7.94 ERA in 5.2 IP is brutal small-sample noise. Lodolo stats missing makes total impossible to handicap. Lean CIN on pitching comparison but no conviction.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.5
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+118 / -139HOU / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+143)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -110
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total