MLB / mlb / live
COL 4 / CIN 6COLColorado Rockies42%
CINCincinnati Reds58%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterMichael Lorenzen
Model pickCIN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterAndrew Abbott
COL42%ML +144
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
CIN58%ML -173
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.6 pts
Market implies 61% CIN, model has 58%. Abbott's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is too small to trust; Lorenzen's 6.23 ERA in 4.1 IP is equally noisy. CIN's 6.1 RPG offense vs COL's weak pitching suggests the home side, but thin pitcher samples keep this a lean. Total 9.24 vs market 9.0 is close; GABP neutral park, lean over on offensive comparison.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+144 / -173COL / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+119)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -106 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total