MLB / mlb / live
COL 4 / CIN 6COLColorado Rockies42%
CINCincinnati Reds58%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterMichael Lorenzen
Model pickCIN moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterAndrew Abbott
COL42%ML +144
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CIN58%ML -173
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.9 pts
Market implies 61% CIN, model has 58%. Abbott's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is too small to trust; Lorenzen's 6.23 ERA in 4.1 IP is equally noisy. CIN's 6.1 RPG offense vs COL's weak pitching suggests the home side, but thin pitcher samples keep this a lean. Total 9.24 vs market 9.0 is close; GABP neutral park, lean over on offensive comparison.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+144 / -173COL / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+119)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -106 / U -115
32 books30 ML25 run line22 total