MLB / mlb / live
COL 2 / CIN 7COLColorado Rockies37%
CINCincinnati Reds63%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterKyle Freeland
Model pickCIN moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterChase Burns
COL37%ML +170
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability64%Selected moneyline pick
CIN63%ML -205
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap1.5 pts
Model (64.1%) and market (64.6%) align on CIN. Away pitcher is TBD with fallback stats (4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA) creating structural uncertainty. Burns data shows full quality but lacks season totals. With pitcher_data_fallback active, confidence downgraded to lean despite CIN's strong 18-10 record and home advantage.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+170 / -205COL / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O +100 / U -120
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total