MLB / mlb / live
COL 2 / CIN 7COLColorado Rockies37%
CINCincinnati Reds63%
at Great American Ball Park
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCOLAway starterKyle Freeland
Model pickCIN moneyline63%Model 20260414_1
CINHome starterChase Burns
COL37%ML +170
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
CIN63%ML -205
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.6 pts
Model (64.1%) and market (64.6%) align on CIN. Away pitcher is TBD with fallback stats (4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA) creating structural uncertainty. Burns data shows full quality but lacks season totals. With pitcher_data_fallback active, confidence downgraded to lean despite CIN's strong 18-10 record and home advantage.
pitcher data fallback
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.0
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+170 / -205COL / CIN moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+102)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O +100 / U -120
32 books30 ML24 run line22 total