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DET 1 / CHW 3
DETDetroit Tigers54%
CHWChicago White Sox46%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
DETAway starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
Model pickDET moneyline54%Model 20260914_auto
CHWHome starterErick FeddeConfirmed
DET54%ML -104
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHW46%ML -116

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.9 pts

Near pick'em market (-108/+100) and a true coin-flip matchup: Fedde 3.97 ERA/1.34 WHIP vs Valdez 4.01/1.36. Model's 53.9% on DET conflicts with Detroit's worse record (72-80) and .582 OPS, and its 5.8 RPG line looks inconsistent with that OPS, so I'll take the home side lightly. Both starters under 7 K/9 with high WHIPs in a 1.067 park supports over 8.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -104 mybookieag / U +100 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%over
O 7.56%over
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Erick FeddeCHW starter / home
Projected K3.6Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betmgm / U -120 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.549%over
O 4.530%over
O 5.517%over
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-104 / -116DET / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-188)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -109 / U -111
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total