MLB / mlb / live
NYM 1 / CHW 2NYMNew York Mets44%
CHWChicago White Sox56%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterNolan McLeanConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline56%Model 20260817_auto
CHWHome starterSean NewcombConfirmed
NYM44%ML -109
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CHW56%ML -108
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total8.3
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Nolan McLeanNYM starter / away
Projected K5.6Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +116 fanduel / U -143 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 6.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.548%over
O 6.533%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Sean NewcombCHW starter / home
Projected K2.5Actual 3 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.571%over
O 2.546%over
O 3.525%under
O 4.512%under
O 5.55%under
O 6.52%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-109 / -108NYM / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-182)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.3O -113 / U -117
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total