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NYM 4 / CHW 6
NYMNew York Mets50%
CHWChicago White Sox50%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYMAway starterSean ManaeaConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline50%Model 20260817_auto
CHWHome starterSean BurkeConfirmed
NYM50%ML +110
Base model probability50%Moneyline only
CHW50%ML -127

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.8 pts

Model splits at 50.5% on NYM despite CHW's better record (66-61 vs 58-70) and the better starter: Burke 3.15 ERA/1.11 WHIP vs Manaea 4.22/1.32. That triggers the offense/defense mismatch flag. Market at -141 (57.4%) looks right. Park is hitter-friendly at 1.067, but Burke's comparison supports slight under on 8.0 versus the model's 8.51.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total8.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Sean ManaeaNYM starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 fanduel / U +120 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.559%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 betonlineag / U -137 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.587%over
O 4.575%under
O 5.560%under
O 6.545%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+110 / -127NYM / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+163)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -109 / U -115
33 books31 ML25 run line23 total