MLB / mlb / live
NYM 10 / CHW 5NYMNew York Mets53%
CHWChicago White Sox47%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYMAway starterChristian ScottConfirmed
Model pickNYM moneyline53%Model 20260817_auto
CHWHome starterLuis CastilloConfirmed
NYM53%ML -105
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
CHW47%ML -111
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.9
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Christian ScottNYM starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -145 betmgm / U +124 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Luis CastilloCHW starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 3 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-105 / -111NYM / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-184)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -114 / U -106
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total