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CIN 5 / CHW 4
CINCincinnati Reds43%
CHWChicago White Sox57%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterNick LodoloConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline57%Model 20260810_auto
CHWHome starterSean BurkeConfirmed
CIN43%ML +137
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
CHW57%ML -161

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-timeN/A

CHW holds edges on both sides: Burke's 3.08 ERA and 10.07 K/9 over 128.7 IP versus Lodolo's 4.60 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, plus a 100-point OPS gap (.729 to .629). Market at -151 (59%) looks fair rather than generous. Rate Field at 1.067 PF with Lodolo's baserunner rate nudges me over 7.5, though Cincinnati's weak offense caps the upside.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.9
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Nick LodoloCIN starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -113 fanduel / U -105 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K7.4Actual 8 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +115 betonlineag / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 7.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.584%over
O 5.573%over
O 6.559%over
O 7.545%over
O 8.532%under
O 9.522%under
O 10.514%under
O 11.58%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+137 / -161CIN / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML23 run line22 total