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CLE 3 / CHW 5
CLECleveland Guardians44%
CHWChicago White Sox56%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterJoey CantilloConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline56%Model 20260803_auto
CHWHome starterDavis MartinConfirmed
CLE44%ML -130
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CHW56%ML +110

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time7.4 pts

CHW is the better team on paper (60-56, .729 OPS vs CLE's .600) and sits at home yet is priced as a small dog at +104. Martin (4.13 ERA) vs Cantillo (3.87 ERA, 9.78 K/9 but 1.47 WHIP) is close enough that the offensive gap should decide it. Model's 55.6% is defensible but 7.5pp above market, so no more than standard. Total: park factor 1.067 pushes up, CLE's weak bat pulls down; no comparison on 8.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Joey CantilloCLE starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -119 draftkings / U +100 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.585%under
O 4.572%under
O 5.557%under
O 6.541%under
O 7.528%under
O 8.518%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -118 draftkings / U -104 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%under
O 2.574%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-130 / +110CLE / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-146)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
32 books31 ML22 run line22 total