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NYY 1 / CHW 2
NYYNew York Yankees51%
CHWChicago White Sox49%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterRyan WeathersConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline51%Model 20260727_auto
CHWHome starterSean BurkeConfirmed
NYY51%ML -105
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
CHW49%ML -114

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.4 pts

Model and market converge on a coin flip (model 50.8% NYY, market 48.4% NYY). Burke's 3.19 ERA in 118 IP is solid but CHW offense at 4.8 RPG vs NYY 4.0 RPG suggests home comparison model missed. Rate Field PF 1.067 pushes total; model 8.15 vs market 7.5 is modest gap but directionally aligned. Take over 7.5, pass on side.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Ryan WeathersNYY starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +126 fanduel / U -140 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K7.1Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +102 fanduel / U -123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 7.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.591%over
O 4.582%over
O 5.569%over
O 6.555%over
O 7.541%over
O 8.529%over
O 9.519%over
O 10.512%under
O 11.57%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-105 / -114NYY / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.0 (-162)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total