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NYY 3 / CHW 2
NYYNew York Yankees56%
CHWChicago White Sox44%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline56%Model 20260727_auto
CHWHome starterAnthony KayConfirmed
NYY56%ML -119
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CHW44%ML +100

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.2 pts

Model has NYY 55.9%, market implies 55.7% — essentially aligned. Cole's 9.58 K/9 vs Kay's 7.32 K/9 and 1.37 WHIP favors away side. CHW offense (5.2 RPG, .729 OPS) significantly better than NYY (3.5 RPG, .692 OPS) but model leans NYY on pitching comparison. Rate Field PF 1.067 and model total 8.67 vs market 8.0 suggests over has slight value. No structural flags; thin comparison.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.1
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +110 bovada / U -125 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Anthony KayCHW starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 bovada / U +100 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-119 / +100NYY / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-167)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -113 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total