MLB / mlb / live
HOU 9 / CHW 5HOUHouston Astros45%
CHWChicago White Sox55%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedHOUAway starterSpencer ArrighettiConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline55%Model 20260720_auto
CHWHome starterDavis MartinConfirmed
HOU45%ML +114
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CHW55%ML -134
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Spencer ArrighettiHOU starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 0 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -132 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.585%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.536%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Davis MartinCHW starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +114 draftkings / U -138 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+114 / -134HOU / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+150)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -104 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total