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OAK 1 / CHW 14
OAKOakland Athletics39%
CHWChicago White Sox61%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterJacob LopezConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline61%Model 20260706_auto
CHWHome starterSean BurkeConfirmed
OAK39%ML +150
Base model probability61%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability62%Selected moneyline pick
CHW61%ML -178

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#5
Total leanOver
Model-market gap0.9 pts

Model at 60.7% converges with market-implied 60.8% on CHW. Burke (3.56 ERA) vs Lopez (7.04 ERA, 1.84 WHIP) is a clear mismatch favoring CHW. Model total 9.54 sits 0.5 runs above market 9.0; Lopez's struggles and Rate Field PF 1.067 support over lean. No structural red flags present.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.0
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Jacob LopezOAK starter / away
Projected K3.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%
O 2.565%
O 3.544%
O 4.526%
O 5.514%
O 6.56%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K5.8
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.592%
O 3.582%
O 4.568%
O 5.552%
O 6.536%
O 7.524%
O 8.514%
O 9.58%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+150 / -178OAK / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U -101
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total