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OAK 0 / CHW 1
OAKOakland Athletics40%
CHWChicago White Sox60%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
OAKAway starterGage JumpConfirmed
Model pickCHW moneyline60%Model 20260706_auto
CHWHome starterBryan HudsonConfirmed
OAK40%ML +102
Base model probability60%Moneyline only
CHW60%ML -123

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time10.2 pts

Model likes CHW at 60% but market is dead even (50/50). The 10-point gap triggers market_disagreement_large but neither team stands out: CHW is 48-45 with 4.4 RPG, OAK is 41-53 with anemic 3.4 RPG and .512 OPS. Hudson's 2.25 ERA in 40 IP is promising but sample is thin. Park factor 1.07 and model total 9.18 vs market 8.5 suggests over lean, but I defer on the side.

Large model-market gap

Projection Context

Projected margin0.8
Projected total9.4
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gage JumpOAK starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +104 betrivers / U -122 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 5.535%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.535%over
O 6.521%over
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Bryan HudsonCHW starter / home
Projected K2.1Actual 0 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.561%under
O 2.535%under
O 3.516%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+102 / -123OAK / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+156)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total