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CLE 4 / CHW 3
CLECleveland Guardians58%
CHWChicago White Sox42%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterTanner BibeeConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
CHWHome starterErick FeddeConfirmed
CLE58%ML -112
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
CHW42%ML -105

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap7.5 pts

Model has CLE at 58.3%, market implies 51.2% — modest comparison. CLE offense is weak (1.5 RPG, .600 OPS) but CHW worse recently per short-window features. Bibee (4.03 ERA, 7.86 K/9) edges Fedde (4.46 ERA, 6.11 K/9). Total at 9.26 feels high given both offenses struggling; lean under the 8.5 market line.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.3
Market total8.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -150 fanatics / U +145 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.553%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Erick FeddeCHW starter / home
Projected K3.2Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -134 fanduel / U +128 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%over
O 2.562%under
O 3.541%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-112 / -105CLE / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-171)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -112 / U -116
33 books31 ML24 run line22 total