sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CLE 1 / CHW 2
CLECleveland Guardians58%
CHWChicago White Sox42%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterParker MessickConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
CHWHome starterSean BurkeConfirmed
CLE58%ML -114
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability51%Selected moneyline pick
CHW42%ML -105

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanOver
Model-market gap7.3 pts

Model picks CLE at 58.3%, market implies 51.2% — modest comparison. Messick (2.70 ERA, 9.45 K/9) has clear SP advantage over Burke (3.89 ERA). Park factor 1.067 and market total 7.0 suggest under, but model sees 7.91. CHW offense (2.7 RPG, .729 OPS) stronger than CLE (1.9 RPG, .600 OPS) argues for runs. Lean CLE side, slight over on total.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.4
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Parker MessickCLE starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betmgm / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.518%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Sean BurkeCHW starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -140 betmgm / U +135 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-114 / -105CLE / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-179)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total