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CLE 5 / CHW 6
CLECleveland Guardians58%
CHWChicago White Sox42%

at Rate Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CLEAway starterGavin WilliamsConfirmed
Model pickCLE moneyline58%Model 20260622_auto
CHWHome starterAnthony KayConfirmed
CLE58%ML -110
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability50%Selected moneyline pick
CHW42%ML -110

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap8.3 pts

Model has CLE 58.3%, market is 50.6% (near pick-em). Williams' 10.11 K/9 in 91.7 IP is legitimate, Kay's 4.61 ERA over 70.3 IP suggests vulnerability. Rate Field's 1.067 PF pushes total toward 8.5 vs market's 7.5—model may be right on over. Offense_defense_mismatch flag fires but CLE pitching advantage offsets their weak offense.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.9
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / away
Projected K6.2Actual 8 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +125 betonlineag / U -150 bovada4 books at this line
Model over 6.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.585%over
O 4.572%over
O 5.557%over
O 6.542%over
O 7.528%over
O 8.518%under
O 9.511%under
O 10.56%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Anthony KayCHW starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -134 fanduel / U +120 betonlineag6 books at this line
Model over 4.542%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-110 / -110CLE / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O +100 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total