MLB / mlb / live
ATL 2 / CHW 0ATLAtlanta Braves54%
CHWChicago White Sox46%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterGrant HolmesConfirmed
Model pickATL moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
CHWHome starterAnthony KayConfirmed
ATL54%ML -110
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHW46%ML -109
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total9.2
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K2.5Did not start / void
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 bovada / U -150 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 4.512%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.571%
O 2.546%
O 3.525%
O 4.512%
O 5.55%
O 6.52%
O 7.51%
O 8.50%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Anthony KayCHW starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +118 fanduel / U -130 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-110 / -109ATL / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-182)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total