MLB / mlb / live
ATL 1 / CHW 2ATLAtlanta Braves59%
CHWChicago White Sox41%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterChris Sale
Model pickATL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterDavis Martin
ATL59%ML -150
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
CHW41%ML +128
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time0.7 pts
CHW pitcher is TBD fallback (5 GS, 14.7 IP, 4.30 ERA). Sale is elite: 72.7 IP, 2.23 ERA, 10.65 K/9. Market has ATL -145 (58.5% implied), model says 58.6% — tight convergence. Model total of 9.48 is 2 runs over market 7.5; likely overweighting park factor (1.067) vs. Sale's dominance. Lean ATL, lean under.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.6
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-150 / +128ATL / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -119 / U -101
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total