MLB / mlb / live
ATL 1 / CHW 2ATLAtlanta Braves59%
CHWChicago White Sox41%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedATLAway starterChris Sale
Model pickATL moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterDavis Martin
ATL59%ML -150
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
CHW41%ML +128
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.9 pts
CHW pitcher is TBD fallback (5 GS, 14.7 IP, 4.30 ERA). Sale is elite: 72.7 IP, 2.23 ERA, 10.65 K/9. Market has ATL -145 (58.5% implied), model says 58.6% — tight convergence. Model total of 9.48 is 2 runs over market 7.5; likely overweighting park factor (1.067) vs. Sale's dominance. Lean ATL, lean under.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin1.6
Projected total9.3
Market total7.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-150 / +128ATL / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-135)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -119 / U -101
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total