MLB / mlb / live
DET 1 / CHW 7DETDetroit Tigers55%
CHWChicago White Sox45%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterFramber Valdez
Model pickDET moneyline55%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterAnthony Kay
DET55%ML -112
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CHW45%ML -104
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.6 pts
Model has DET at 55.2%, market at 53.6% — close alignment. DET offense is league-worst at 3.1 RPG/.582 OPS, which makes offense_defense_mismatch flag puzzling since model picks the worse team. Valdez (1.50 ERA, 60 IP) is legitimately excellent. Model total of 9.32 vs market 7.5 is a 1.82-run gap; likely overweighting CHW offense in a hitter park against an ace. Lean DET, lean under.
total far from marketoffense defense mismatch
Projection Context
Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.3
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-112 / -104DET / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-175)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total