MLB / mlb / live
MIN 2 / CHW 6MINMinnesota Twins42%
CHWChicago White Sox58%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterSimeon Woods Richardson
Model pickCHW moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterDavis Martin
MIN42%ML +144
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability61%Selected moneyline pick
CHW58%ML -175
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total leanOver
Model-market gap2.7 pts
Model has CHW at 60.2%, market at 57.6% — mild agreement. Rojas has only 1 start this season, making away pitching unreliable. CHW offense (5.4 RPG, .729 OPS) significantly outpaces MIN (4.2 RPG, .673 OPS). Model total of 8.7 vs market 8.0 in a hitter park (PF 1.067) suggests over lean, but pitcher uncertainty limits confidence to lean on both.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+144 / -175MIN / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line23 total