MLB / mlb / live
MIN 2 / CHW 6MINMinnesota Twins42%
CHWChicago White Sox58%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterSimeon Woods Richardson
Model pickCHW moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterDavis Martin
MIN42%ML +144
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHW58%ML -175
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time2.6 pts
Model has CHW at 60.2%, market at 57.6% — mild agreement. Rojas has only 1 start this season, making away pitching unreliable. CHW offense (5.4 RPG, .729 OPS) significantly outpaces MIN (4.2 RPG, .673 OPS). Model total of 8.7 vs market 8.0 in a hitter park (PF 1.067) suggests over lean, but pitcher uncertainty limits confidence to lean on both.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+144 / -175MIN / CHW moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -105 / U -115
31 books30 ML23 run line23 total