MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / CHW 3MINMinnesota Twins42%
CHWChicago White Sox58%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterJoe Ryan
Model pickCHW moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterSean Burke
MIN42%ML -117
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability48%Selected moneyline pick
CHW58%ML -102
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total leanOver
Model-market gap9.2 pts
Model gives CHW 57.5% at home despite Joe Ryan's elite 0.00 ERA and 0.56 WHIP vs Burke's 6.75 ERA and 2.0 WHIP in limited IP. Market correctly favors MIN. The 9% model-market gap signals structural misweighting. Lean over 7.5 given Rate Field's 1.067 park factor and CHW offense (4.9 RPG, .729 OPS) despite Ryan's dominance.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-117 / -102MIN / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-174)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total