MLB / mlb / live
MIN 5 / CHW 3MINMinnesota Twins42%
CHWChicago White Sox58%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMINAway starterJoe Ryan
Model pickCHW moneyline58%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterSean Burke
MIN42%ML -117
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHW58%ML -102
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#7
Total lean · analyst-timeOver
Model-market gap · analyst-time9.2 pts
Model gives CHW 57.5% at home despite Joe Ryan's elite 0.00 ERA and 0.56 WHIP vs Burke's 6.75 ERA and 2.0 WHIP in limited IP. Market correctly favors MIN. The 9% model-market gap signals structural misweighting. Lean over 7.5 given Rate Field's 1.067 park factor and CHW offense (4.9 RPG, .729 OPS) despite Ryan's dominance.
Large model-market gap
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.0
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-117 / -102MIN / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-174)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -105
31 books30 ML24 run line23 total