MLB / mlb / live
CHC 8 / CHW 9CHCChicago Cubs59%
CHWChicago White Sox41%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHCAway starterColin Rea
Model pickCHC moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterErick Fedde
CHC59%ML -135
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
CHW41%ML +115
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanOver
Model-market gap3.4 pts
Model at 58.6% on CHC aligns with market's 54.7% implied. Cubs' superior 29-17 record vs CHW's 23-22 supports the pick. Model's 9.63 total significantly exceeds market's 8.5, and Rate Field's 1.067 park factor argues toward higher scoring. Missing pitcher peripheral stats limits conviction.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.6
Projected total9.6
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-135 / +115CHC / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -120 / U +100
30 books29 ML23 run line22 total