MLB / mlb / live
SEA 12 / CHW 8SEASeattle Mariners59%
CHWChicago White Sox41%
at Rate Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSEAAway starterEmerson Hancock
Model pickSEA moneyline59%Model 20260414_1
CHWHome starterSean Burke
SEA59%ML -139
Base model probability59%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability56%Selected moneyline pick
CHW41%ML +118
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.7 pts
Model SEA 58.6% vs market 55.4% is mild convergence. Hancock's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is extreme small-sample noise, not predictive. Burke's 6.75 ERA in 4 IP equally meaningless. Both pitchers under 10 IP makes this a bullpen game in disguise. Total model-market gap (9.31 vs 8.0) is large but pitcher data too thin to justify a lean.
Projection Context
Projected margin1.3
Projected total9.3
Market total8.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus-139 / +118SEA / CHW moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.0O -108 / U -112
31 books29 ML25 run line22 total