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MLB / mlb / live

scheduled
MIAMiami Marlins43%
CHCChicago Cubs57%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterTyler PhillipsConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline57%Model 20260921_auto
CHCHome starterMatthew BoydConfirmed
MIA43%ML +176
Base model probability57%Moneyline only
CHC57%ML -215

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time8.6 pts

Market prices CHC at 65.3% while the model says 56.7%; -200 looks steep with Miami carrying the better offense (.774 OPS vs .694) and the better starter (Phillips 3.45 ERA vs Boyd 4.06). Small lean to MIA at plus money, no conviction. Model's 8.68 total is 1.68 above the 7.0 line and ignores Wrigley's 0.95 park factor in late September.

Large model-market gaptotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.5
Projected total8.7
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K4.0
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Matthew BoydCHC starter / home
Projected K4.6
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+176 / -215MIA / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -110 / U -110
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total