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MIA 8 / CHC 2
MIAMiami Marlins36%
CHCChicago Cubs64%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
MIAAway starterJanson JunkConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline64%Model 20260921_auto
CHCHome starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
MIA36%ML +178
Base model probability64%Moneyline only
CHC64%ML -213

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#9
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.6 pts

Model (64.2%) and market (65.8%) agree on Chicago, so the side is uncontroversial, but the home starter is TBD/fallback, which caps conviction. The 8.84 model total versus a 6.5 market line is a 2.3-run gap that Wrigley's 0.95 park factor and late-September conditions do not support; the fallback profile (4.96 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) is likely inflating it. Lean under.

pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin1.2
Projected total8.9
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Janson JunkMIA starter / away
Projected K2.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +140 draftkings / U -160 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.533%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.578%over
O 2.555%over
O 3.533%over
O 4.517%over
O 5.58%over
O 6.53%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -141 draftkings / U +115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 5.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.569%over
O 5.553%over
O 6.538%over
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+178 / -213MIA / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+110)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -116 / U -103
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total