MLB / mlb / live
PIT 2 / CHC 12PITPittsburgh Pirates44%
CHCChicago Cubs56%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedPITAway starterWilber DotelConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline56%Model 20260907_auto
CHCHome starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
PIT44%ML +161
Base model probability56%Moneyline only
CHC56%ML -195
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.1
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Wilber DotelPIT starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 1 K / Under 1.5
Best price at 1.51.5O -183 draftkings / U +142 draftkings2 books at this line
Model over 1.583%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.583%under
O 2.562%under
O 3.541%under
O 4.523%under
O 5.512%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +118 betonlineag / U -140 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.569%under
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+161 / -195PIT / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+105)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -109 / U -113
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total