MLB / mlb / live
MIL 1 / CHC 2MILMilwaukee Brewers51%
CHCChicago Cubs49%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedMILAway starterLogan HendersonConfirmed
Model pickMIL moneyline51%Model 20260831_auto
CHCHome starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
MIL51%ML -125
Base model probability51%Moneyline only
CHC49%ML +106
Projection Context
Projected margin0.6
Projected total8.8
Market total8.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 bovada / U -105 fanatics6 books at this line
Model over 5.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%over
O 5.544%over
O 6.529%over
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Kevin GausmanCHC starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 draftkings / U -118 betmgm5 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.524%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-125 / +106MIL / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-158)Home spread price shown for context
Total context8.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total