sharps.ggEvery pick graded
Back to board

MLB / mlb / live

CIN 7 / CHC 5
CINCincinnati Reds37%
CHCChicago Cubs63%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterChase BurnsConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline63%Model 20260824_auto
CHCHome starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
CIN37%ML +135
Base model probability63%Moneyline only
CHC63%ML -159

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#11
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time6.5 pts

Model's 62.8% on CHC is ~6.5 points above the market's 56.3% implied, and the pitching comparison actually belongs to Cincinnati: Burns at 2.77 ERA with 10.57 K/9 outclasses Imanaga's 3.78 ERA. Chicago's offense and 77-59 record justify a small home lean, not conviction. Wrigley at 0.951 PF plus Burns' strikeout rate points under the 9.5.

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.1
Market total9.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Chase BurnsCIN starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -139 draftkings / U +116 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K6.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -130 betonlineag / U +115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.559%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.574%under
O 5.559%under
O 6.544%under
O 7.530%under
O 8.519%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+135 / -159CIN / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+125)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books31 ML25 run line23 total