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MLB / mlb / live

CIN 5 / CHC 17
CINCincinnati Reds46%
CHCChicago Cubs54%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
CINAway starterAndrew AbbottConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260824_auto
CHCHome starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
CIN46%ML +179
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHC54%ML -210

Projection Context

Projected margin0.3
Projected total9.2
Market total9.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andrew AbbottCIN starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -123 betonlineag / U +102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanCHC starter / home
Projected K6.5Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +128 fanduel / U -145 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 6.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.576%over
O 5.562%over
O 6.547%over
O 7.533%under
O 8.522%under
O 9.514%under
O 10.58%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+179 / -210CIN / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (-104)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.5O -102 / U -118
33 books32 ML25 run line24 total