MLB / mlb / live
CHW 3 / CHC 0CHWChicago White Sox46%
CHCChicago Cubs54%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedCHWAway starterSean NewcombConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260817_auto
CHCHome starterClay HolmesConfirmed
CHW46%ML +127
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHC54%ML -149
Projection Context
Projected margin0.0
Projected total8.8
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Sean NewcombCHW starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 0 K
Market line ยท pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%under
O 2.570%under
O 3.550%under
O 4.531%under
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Clay HolmesCHC starter / home
Projected K5.0Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -122 draftkings / U -102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 4.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%under
O 2.587%under
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+127 / -149CHW / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+144)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -115 / U -106
32 books31 ML24 run line23 total