MLB / mlb / live
LAD 1 / CHC 5LADLos Angeles Dodgers52%
CHCChicago Cubs48%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedLADAway starterTarik SkubalConfirmed
Model pickLAD moneyline52%Model 20260803_auto
CHCHome starterJavier AssadConfirmed
LAD52%ML -200
Base model probability52%Moneyline only
CHC48%ML +165
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.2
Market total9.0
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Tarik SkubalLAD starter / away
Projected K7.2Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +118 fanduel / U -135 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 7.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.597%over
O 3.592%over
O 4.583%over
O 5.571%over
O 6.557%under
O 7.543%under
O 8.531%under
O 9.520%under
O 10.513%under
O 11.58%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Javier AssadCHC starter / home
Projected K3.9Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +108 betrivers / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.554%under
O 4.535%under
O 5.520%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus-200 / +165LAD / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.5 (+101)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -110 / U -111
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total