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scheduled
NYYNew York Yankees55%
CHCChicago Cubs45%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
CHCHome starterColin ReaConfirmed
NYY55%ML -122
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
CHC45%ML +105

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rankUnranked
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap2.2 pts

Model predicts 9.16 runs vs market 6.5, a 2.66-run gap flagged correctly. Cole (3.57 ERA, 9.66 K/9) is a legitimate weapon, Rea less so (4.67 ERA). Model's total is structurally wrong—likely overweighting CHC's recent runs allowed without adjusting for opponent quality. NYY lean matches market at 55% vs 54%, no comparison. Total conflict too severe to take a side.

total far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Updated
Market
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K5.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.579%
O 4.564%
O 5.547%
O 6.532%
O 7.520%
O 8.512%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Colin ReaCHC starter / home
Projected K4.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus-122 / +105NYY / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-170)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total