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NYY 2 / CHC 1
NYYNew York Yankees55%
CHCChicago Cubs45%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterGerrit ColeConfirmed
Model pickNYY moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
CHCHome starterColin ReaConfirmed
NYY55%ML -118
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CHC45%ML -102

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#10
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time1.4 pts

Model predicts 9.16 runs vs market 6.5, a 2.66-run gap flagged correctly. Cole (3.57 ERA, 9.66 K/9) is a legitimate weapon, Rea less so (4.67 ERA). Model's total is structurally wrong—likely overweighting CHC's recent runs allowed without adjusting for opponent quality. NYY lean matches market at 55% vs 54%, no comparison. Total conflict too severe to take a side.

total far from marketoffense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.2
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +105 betmgm / U -121 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Colin ReaCHC starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betonlineag / U +124 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-118 / -102NYY / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-180)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -124 / U +102
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total