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NYY 2 / CHC 5
NYYNew York Yankees46%
CHCChicago Cubs54%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
NYYAway starterMax FriedConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260727_auto
CHCHome starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
NYY46%ML +105
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHC54%ML -125

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#6
Total lean · analyst-timeUnder
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.3 pts

Model has CHC 54% vs market 49% — small comparison evaporates against Peterson's 5.80 ERA in 95 IP. Fried (3.23 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) is the better starter by far. Model total 8.64 runs vs market 6.5 is a 2-run structural miss; Wrigley PF 0.95 and Fried's quality argue under. Lean NYY on pitching advantage.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.1
Market total6.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Max FriedNYY starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -146 draftkings / U +128 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

David PetersonCHC starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -138 draftkings / U +117 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus+105 / -125NYY / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-210)Home spread price shown for context
Total context6.5O -108 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total