MLB / mlb / live
NYY 2 / CHC 0NYYNew York Yankees45%
CHCChicago Cubs55%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill WarrenConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
CHCHome starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
NYY45%ML +140
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
CHC55%ML -163
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 fanatics / U -108 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%over
O 5.521%over
O 6.511%over
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 fanduel / U +118 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.582%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+140 / -163NYY / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+122)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -103 / U -120
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total