MLB / mlb / live
scheduledNYYNew York Yankees45%
CHCChicago Cubs55%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedNYYAway starterWill WarrenProbable
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260727_auto
CHCHome starterShota ImanagaProbable
NYY45%ML +130
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability58%Selected moneyline pick
CHC55%ML -154
Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.8
Market total9.0
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
UpdatedMarket
Will WarrenNYY starter / away
Projected K4.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.555%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.511%
O 7.56%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.8
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.592%
O 3.581%
O 4.567%
O 5.551%
O 6.536%
O 7.523%
O 8.514%
O 9.58%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context
Market consensus+130 / -154NYY / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+130)Home spread price shown for context
Total context9.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total