MLB / mlb / live
DET 2 / CHC 11DETDetroit Tigers46%
CHCChicago Cubs54%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedDETAway starterFramber ValdezConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline54%Model 20260720_auto
CHCHome starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
DET46%ML +100
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHC54%ML -120
Projection Context
Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.5
Market total7.5
Total leanOver
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -121 betrivers / U +110 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%under
O 2.579%under
O 3.561%under
O 4.543%under
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
David PetersonCHC starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +120 betmgm / U -122 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+100 / -120DET / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+160)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -110 / U -109
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total