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STL 17 / CHC 1
STLSt. Louis Cardinals42%
CHCChicago Cubs58%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
STLAway starterAndre PallanteConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline58%Model 20260629_auto
CHCHome starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
STL42%ML +111
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability55%Selected moneyline pick
CHC58%ML -132

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#3
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap3.1 pts

Market has STL +115 (46% implied) vs model's 42% for CHC. Peterson's 5.86 ERA in 73.7 IP is concerning; STL's .812 OPS despite 3.6 RPG suggests strong underlying offense. Model total 9.16 vs market 10.5 is significant—park factor 0.95 and Pallante's solid 3.83 ERA support under lean.

Projection Context

Projected margin0.7
Projected total9.4
Market total10.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Andre PallanteSTL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -133 draftkings / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.564%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.545%under
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

David PetersonCHC starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+111 / -132STL / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context10.5O -122 / U -102
33 books31 ML24 run line22 total