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SDP 3 / CHC 23
SDPSan Diego Padres47%
CHCChicago Cubs53%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterWalker BuehlerConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline53%Model 20260629_auto
CHCHome starterColin ReaConfirmed
SDP47%ML +105
Base model probability53%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
CHC53%ML -124

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#4
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap0.0 pts

Model predicts 9.75 runs vs market 12.0 — a 2.25-run gap flags structural disagreement. CHC offense (7.2 RPG, .694 OPS) is real but Buehler (3.81 ERA, 8.08 K/9) is the superior starter. Model leans CHC 53.2% vs market 53.9%; essentially a pick'em. Taking SDP as slight dog with better pitching. Total under looks correct given both signals pointing low.

total far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.1
Projected total9.2
Market total12.0
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 betmgm / U +132 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.561%over
O 4.542%over
O 5.526%over
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Colin ReaCHC starter / home
Projected K4.3Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -130 betmgm / U +126 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 3.562%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%under
O 6.515%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+105 / -124SDP / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+145)Home spread price shown for context
Total context12.0O -111 / U -110
32 books31 ML23 run line22 total