MLB / mlb / live
SDP 2 / CHC 3SDPSan Diego Padres54%
CHCChicago Cubs46%
at Wrigley Field
Live MLB Moneyline
UpdatedSDPAway starterGriffin CanningConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline54%Model 20260629_auto
CHCHome starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
SDP54%ML +135
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
CHC46%ML -162
AI Analyst Insight
AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#13
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time4.9 pts
Away pitcher TBD with fallback stats makes both moneyline and total unreliable. Model predicts 8.0 runs vs market 11.5—a 3.5-run gap flags structural miss. Without knowing SDP starter, no comparison exists.
pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market
Projection Context
Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.9
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder
Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.
Pitcher Strikeout Forecast
Final / frozen pregame forecast / UpdatedMarket
Lines
Griffin CanningSDP starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betrivers / U +120 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -134 betrivers / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.
Odds & Market Context Closing odds
Market consensus+135 / -162SDP / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -103 / U -117
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total