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SDP 2 / CHC 3
SDPSan Diego Padres54%
CHCChicago Cubs46%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
SDPAway starterGriffin CanningConfirmed
Model pickSDP moneyline54%Model 20260629_auto
CHCHome starterShota ImanagaConfirmed
SDP54%ML +135
Base model probability54%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability41%Selected moneyline pick
CHC46%ML -162

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#13
Total leanNo total lean
Model-market gap12.8 pts

Away pitcher TBD with fallback stats makes both moneyline and total unreliable. Model predicts 8.0 runs vs market 11.5—a 3.5-run gap flags structural miss. Without knowing SDP starter, no comparison exists.

pitcher data fallbacktotal far from market

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total9.9
Market total11.5
Total leanUnder

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Griffin CanningSDP starter / away
Projected K3.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -139 betrivers / U +120 bovada5 books at this line
Model over 3.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%over
O 3.550%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -134 betrivers / U +125 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.561%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.561%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.518%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+135 / -162SDP / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+115)Home spread price shown for context
Total context11.5O -103 / U -117
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total