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TOR 2 / CHC 16
TORToronto Blue Jays45%
CHCChicago Cubs55%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterKevin GausmanConfirmed
Model pickCHC moneyline55%Model 20260616_auto
CHCHome starterBen BrownConfirmed
TOR45%ML +103
Base model probability55%Moneyline only
Market-implied probability53%Selected moneyline pick
CHC55%ML -122

Market-implied probability is estimated from the listed MLB moneyline after removing sportsbook margin. This is market context, not betting advice.

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst disagrees with base model
AI rank#2
Total leanUnder
Model-market gap2.8 pts

Model has CHC 55.5% vs market 52.4%—minor comparison. But Brown's 1.74 ERA in 62 IP is elite, Gausman 3.41 in 87 IP is solid: ace matchup. Model total 8.74 vs market 7.0 is a 1.74-run miss. Wrigley PF 0.95 and dual aces argue under. TOR's .786 OPS advantage over CHC's .694 tips slight road lean.

total far from marketace matchup

Projection Context

Projected margin0.4
Projected total8.7
Market total7.0
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Kevin GausmanTOR starter / away
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -115 fanatics / U +107 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.574%under
O 4.557%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.526%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Ben BrownCHC starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -111 betonlineag / U +100 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%under
O 5.532%under
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context

Market consensus+103 / -122TOR / CHC moneyline
Run line context-1.5 (+172)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.0O -115 / U -105
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total