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TOR 2 / CHC 3
TORToronto Blue Jays58%
CHCChicago Cubs42%

at Wrigley Field

Live MLB Moneyline

Updated
TORAway starterDylan CeaseConfirmed
Model pickTOR moneyline58%Model 20260803_auto
CHCHome starterDavid PetersonConfirmed
TOR58%ML -114
Base model probability58%Moneyline only
CHC42%ML -104

AI Analyst Insight

AI agreementAnalyst agrees with base model
AI rank#1
Total lean · analyst-timeNo total lean
Model-market gap · analyst-time5.6 pts

Cease (2.41 ERA, 13.12 K/9, 1.08 WHIP) against Peterson (5.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP) is a large starter gap that outweighs the record and RPG mismatch flag. Market has TOR near 52%, model 57.6% — modest but justifiable comparison. No market total provided, so no view on the 9.20 projection despite Wrigley's 0.95 park factor.

offense defense mismatch

Projection Context

Projected margin1.0
Projected total9.2
Market total7.5
Total leanOver

Run-line and total models are projection context here, not ranked public picks. Edge and EV remain held for audit.

Pitcher Strikeout Forecast

Final / frozen pregame forecast / Updated
Market
Lines
Dylan CeaseTOR starter / away
Projected K8.0Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -125 betonlineag / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 7.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.589%over
O 5.579%over
O 6.567%over
O 7.554%over
O 8.541%over
O 9.529%over
O 10.520%under
O 11.513%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

Shota ImanagaCHC starter / home
Projected K3.5Did not start / void
Best price at 4.54.5O -134 betrivers / U +122 fanduel3 books at this line
Model over 4.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%
O 2.567%
O 3.546%
O 4.528%
O 5.515%
O 6.57%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Model strikeout projections are forecasts, not picks. Market lines shown are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Completed games show actual strikeouts for calibration only. See the full props board.

Odds & Market Context Closing odds

Market consensus-114 / -104TOR / CHC moneyline
Run line context1.5 (-176)Home spread price shown for context
Total context7.5O -105 / U -115
33 books32 ML24 run line23 total